Vanguard economic and market outlook: 2023

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Webinar: Beating back inflation

Watch our economists share their expectations for global growth, inflation and recession risks, as well as updated investment return forecasts, in our 2023 outlook webinar.

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Download the full report
Read the full report for a deeper dive on the drivers behind our global economic and market return forecasts, including central banks’ fight against inflation, Europe’s energy crisis and China’s relaxing of Covid-19 restrictions.
 

Key points

Global recession as our base case

Investors can expect a more challenging macroeconomic environment in 2023 with a global recession as our base case brought about by central banks raising interest rates to reduce persistently high inflation. 

Challenging economic outlook

While all recessions are painful, unemployment is unlikely to rise nearly as high as during the 2008 and 2020 downturns. Households, businesses and financial institutions are in a much better position than going into previous recessions. 

Improved long-term outlook for asset-class returns

The silver lining is that this year’s bear market has improved our outlook for global fixed income and global equities. Expectations around 10-year asset-class returns are more attractive than they were a year ago. 

"Near-term pain is still possible, but long-term gain is now more likely."

Jumana Saleheen

Vanguard European Chief Economist

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Investment risk information

The value of investments, and the income from them, may fall or rise and investors may get back less than they invested.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Any projections should be regarded as hypothetical in nature and do not reflect or guarantee future results.

IMPORTANT: The projections or other information generated by the Vanguard Capital Markets Model® regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future results. VCMM results will vary with each use and over time.

The VCMM projections are based on a statistical analysis of historical data. Future returns may behave differently from the historical patterns captured in the VCMM. More important, the VCMM may be underestimating extreme negative scenarios unobserved in the historical period on which the model estimation is based.

The Vanguard Capital Markets Model® is a proprietary financial simulation tool developed and maintained by Vanguard’s primary investment research and advice teams. The model forecasts distributions of future returns for a wide array of broad asset classes. Those asset classes include US and international equity markets, several maturities of the U.S. Treasury and corporate fixed income markets, international fixed income markets, US money markets, commodities, and certain alternative investment strategies. The theoretical and empirical foundation for the Vanguard Capital Markets Model is that the returns of various asset classes reflect the compensation investors require for bearing different types of systematic risk (beta). At the core of the model are estimates of the dynamic statistical relationship between risk factors and asset returns, obtained from statistical analysis based on available monthly financial and economic data from as early as 1960. Using a system of estimated equations, the model then applies a Monte Carlo simulation method to project the estimated interrelationships among risk factors and asset classes as well as uncertainty and randomness over time. The model generates a large set of simulated outcomes for each asset class over several time horizons. Forecasts are obtained by computing measures of central tendency in these simulations. Results produced by the tool will vary with each use and over time.

Important information

For professional investors only (as defined under the MiFID II Directive) investing for their own account (including management companies (fund of funds) and professional clients investing on behalf of their discretionary clients). In Switzerland for professional investors only. Not to be distributed to the public.

The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell securities in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation is against the law, or to anyone to whom it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation, or if the person making the offer or solicitation is not qualified to do so.  The information in this document does not constitute legal, tax, or investment advice. You must not, therefore, rely on the content of this document when making any investment decisions.

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© 2022 Vanguard Asset Management, Limited. All rights reserved.